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United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004

United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004

November 2, 2004

 
Nominee John Kerry George W. Bush
Party Democratic Republican
Home state Massachusetts Texas
Running mate John Edwards Dick Cheney
Electoral vote 4 0
Popular vote 340,511 331,237
Percentage 50.24% 48.87%

County Results
  Kerry—50-60%
  Bush—50-60%

President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

George W. Bush
Republican

The 2004 United States presidential election in New Hampshire took place on November 2, 2004 throughout all 50 states and D.C., which was part of the 2004 United States presidential election. Voters chose 4 representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for President and Vice President.

swing state. Traditionally a more Republican leaning state of the heavily Democratic New England region, it was the only state in all of the Northeast to vote Republican in 2000. The state is considered to be more fiscally conservative than its neighbors in New England. However, like the rest of New England, it is considerably more liberal on social issues, which benefits Democratic candidates. New Hampshire was the only state that Bush won in the 2000 presidential election but lost in the 2004 presidential election. This has been the only time since 1976 that New Hampshire has not voted for the winning candidate.

Contents

  • Primaries 1
    • Polling 1.1
    • Results 1.2
      • Exit Polling 1.2.1
  • Campaign 2
    • Predictions 2.1
    • Polling 2.2
    • Fundraising 2.3
    • Advertising and visits 2.4
  • Analysis 3
  • Results 4
    • By county 4.1
    • By congressional district 4.2
  • Electors 5
  • References 6
  • See also 7

Primaries

New Hampshire Democratic primary, 2004

January 27, 2004 (2004-01-27)

 
Nominee John Kerry Howard Dean Wesley Clark
Party Democratic Democratic Democratic
Home state Massachusetts Vermont Illinois
Popular vote 84,377 57,761 27,314
Percentage 38.35 26.25% 12.41%

 
Nominee John Edwards Joe Lieberman Dennis Kucinich
Party Democratic Democratic Democratic
Home state North Carolina Connecticut Ohio
Popular vote 26,487 18,911 3,114
Percentage 12.04% 8.59% 1.42%

The 2004 New Hampshire Democratic Primary was held on January 27, 2004 across the state. Taking place 8 days after the Iowa Caucuses, it marked the second contest to take place during the Democratic party's 2004 primary season, as well as the first actual primary to take place.

Polling

Primary polling taken by American Research Group during the last few days of campaigning ( January 23 to January 27, 2004 ) showed that former New Hampshire poll leader as well as national leader Howard Dean was steadily gaining ground to catch up to now front runner John Kerry.

Candidate January 23 to 25 poll tracking January 24 to 26 poll tracking
John Kerry 38% 35%
Howard Dean 20% 25%
John Edwards 16% 15%
Wesley Clark 15% 13%
Joe Lieberman 5% 6%

Gathered from ARG's 2004 NH Democratic Tracking Poll [1]

Margin of Error +/- 4

Tracking polling showed that Dean had been catching up to Kerry in the days before the primary, cutting Kerry's 18 point lead to 10 points in a matter of days. With Dean dropping and Kerry rising, it became apparent that the battle for 1st place in New Hampshire would be close. Also, for third place, Wesley Clark, John Edwards and Joe Lieberman were the only ones fighting for third. With Clark and Edwards both taking hits going into the primary, a Lieberman on the rise, the fight for 1st place and third place, according to polls would be intense.

Results

As results began to come in during Primary night, it became apparent Kerry had won the primary and was promptly projected the winner by several media outlets. Dean finished in second place. Clark and Edwards were in a dead-lock for third place, with both candidates at 12% during the night.

As final results were being tallied, Kerry won the primary with 84,277 votes and 38%, Dean finished second with 57,761, and 26% and Clark narrowly defeated Edwards for third place with 27,314 votes and 12% [2]

Candidate State Delegates Percentage Potential National delegates
John Kerry 84,377 38.35 12
Howard Dean 57,761 26.25 9
Wesley Clark 27,314 12.41 0
John Edwards 26,487 12.04 0
Joe Lieberman 18,911 8.59 0
Dennis Kucinich 3,114 01.42 0

Exit Polling

Category All Clark Dean Edwards Kerry Lieberman
Male 46% 13% 25% 14% 36% 10%
Female 54% 12% 26% 11% 41% 8%
18-64 Years 89% 12% 25% 13% 39% 8%
65+ Years 11% 10% 28% 10% 38% 13%
Democrat 48% 11% 29% 12% 41% 5%
Republican 4% 10% 8% 9% 29% 26%
Independent 48% 13% 23% 13% 37% 12%

Source: CNN.com 2004 Primaries [3]

Kerry won huge margins of support amongst almost all constituencies, with his only weak point amongst Republicans who made up 4% of the voting block and was Lieberman's strongest point. Dean repeatedly came distant seconds or third for almost all categories of voters. Edward defeated Clark amongst Male voters as well as voters under 65 but only by a very tiny margin. Lieberman finished in a distant third in almost all categories except for Republicans in which he nearly defeated John Kerry.

Campaign

Predictions

There were 12 news organizations who made state by state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day.[4]

  1. D.C. Political Report: Slight Democrat
  2. Associated Press: Toss Up
  3. CNN: Kerry
  4. Cook Political Report: Toss Up
  5. Newsweek: Toss Up
  6. New York Times: Toss Up
  7. Rasmussen Reports: Toss Up
  8. Research 2000: Toss Up
  9. Washington Post: Battleground
  10. Washington Times: Battleground
  11. Zogby International: Kerry
  12. Washington Dispatch: Kerry

Polling

Pre-election polling was back and forth, with no clear indication who would end up winning the state. The final 3 polls averaged Kerry leading 48% to 47%, with the undecided voters, making up just 3%, deciding the election.[5]

Fundraising

Bush raised $598,474.[6] Kerry raised $766,720.[7]

Advertising and visits

Bush visited the state 6 times, while Kerry visited the state 4 times.[8] Each campaign spent between $100,000 to $300,000 each week.[9]

Analysis

See also

  1. ^ "2004 NH Democratic Tracking". 
  2. ^ "2004 Primaries". CNN. 
  3. ^ "2004 Primaries". CNN. 
  4. ^ http://www.dcpoliticalreport.com/members/2004/Pred2.htm#NW
  5. ^ http://uselectionatlas.org/USPRESIDENT/GENERAL/CAMPAIGN/2004/polls.php?fips=33
  6. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/george_w_bush.asp?cycle=04
  7. ^ http://www.campaignmoney.com/political/campaigns/john_f_kerry.asp?cycle=04
  8. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN. 
  9. ^ "CNN.com Specials". CNN. 
  10. ^ http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_2004/new_hampshire_kerry_49_bush_47
  11. ^ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/Presidential_04/nh_polls.html
  12. ^ http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/4161/
  13. ^ http://www.sos.nh.gov/electors.htm

References

  1. Jeanne Shaheen
  2. Peter Burling
  3. Judy Reardon
  4. James Ryan

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 4 were pledged for Kerry/Edwards:[13]

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 13, 2004 to cast their votes for President and Vice President. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

Technically the voters of NH cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. NH is allocated 4 electors because it has 2 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 4 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 4 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for President and Vice President. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them. An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

Electors

District Bush Kerry Representative
1st 51% 48% Jeb Bradley (R)
2nd 47% 52% Charles Bass (R)
[12]Bush and Kerry each won one congressional district.

By congressional district

County Kerry % Kerry # Bush % Bush # Others % Others #
Cheshire 59.1% 24,438 39.8% 16,463 1.1% 446
Grafton 55.7% 26,180 43.2% 20,277 1.1% 514
Strafford 55.6% 32,942 43.6% 25,825 0.9% 514
Sullivan 52.4% 11,434 46.5% 10,142 1.0% 228
Merrimack 52.2% 39,975 47.0% 36,060 0.8% 612
Coos 50.7% 8,585 48.1% 8,143 1.2% 197
Hillsborough 48.2% 94,121 51.0% 99,724 0.8% 1,582
Rockingham 47.5% 75,437 51.7% 82,069 0.8% 1,310
Carroll 47.2% 13,319 51.8% 14,614 1.0% 289
Belknap 43.6% 14,080 55.5% 17,920 0.9% 298

By county

United States presidential election in New Hampshire, 2004
Party Candidate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Democratic John Kerry 340,511 50.24% 4
Republican George Bush (inc.) 331,237 48.87% 0
Independent Ralph Nader 4,479 0.66% 0
Write Ins 978 0.14% 0
Libertarian (Write-in) Michael Badnarik (Write-in) 372 0.05% 0
Constitution (Write-in) Michael Peroutka (Write-in) 161 0.02% 0
Totals - 100.00% 4
Voter turnout (Voting Age Population) 69.1%

Results

On election day, Kerry won with just over 50% of the vote, with a small margin of victory, as expected from the polls. Major factors include Bush's lower approval ratings and just 1% who voted for third party candidates, unlike 2000 when over 4% of the people voted for an independent. Kerry won 6 of the 10 counties. Most of the counties were won and lost by small margins. Kerry's key to victory was winning Cheshire County with over 59%. Bush's best performance was in Belknap County, which he won with over 55% and carrying every single town. Bush won New Hampshire's 1st congressional district, and Kerry won New Hampshire's 2nd congressional district.

[11] Also, polling in the state consistently showed Kerry leading, and with between 47% to 50% of the vote.[10]

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