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41st Manitoba general election

41st Manitoba general election

On or before October 6, 2015 (2015-10-06) or April 19, 2016 (See "Date")

57 seats of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
29 seats needed for a majority
 
Leader Greg Selinger Brian Pallister
Party New Democratic Progressive Conservative
Leader since October 17, 2009 July 30, 2012
Leader's seat St. Boniface Fort Whyte
Last election 37 seats, 46.16% 19 seats, 43.71%
Current seats 35 19

 
GRN
Leader Rana Bokhari Alain Landry
Party Liberal Green
Leader since October 26, 2013 interim
Last election 1 seats, 7.52% 0 seats, 2.52%
Current seats 1 0

Manitoba's 57 electoral districts

Incumbent Premier

Greg Selinger
New Democratic

The 41st general election of Manitoba, tentatively scheduled for October 6, 2015, or April 19, 2016, will be held to elect members to the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba.[1] The New Democratic Party of Manitoba, led by Premier Greg Selinger, will attempt to win its fifth consecutive term in office. The Official Opposition Progressive Conservatives, who acclaimed Brian Pallister as leader on July 30, 2012,[2] will seek to form a government for the first time since 1999. The Liberals, who elected a new leader in October 2013, will attempt to win their first election since 1953.

Contents

  • Date 1
  • Party standings 2
  • Incumbents not contesting their seats 3
    • Retiring incumbents 3.1
  • Opinion polls 4
  • By-elections since 2011 5
  • References 6
  • External links 7

Date

Under the Manitoba Elections Act, the general election is to be held on the first Tuesday of October in the fourth calendar year, following the previous election.[3] As the last election was held in 2011, that date would be October 6, 2015. However, the act also provides that if, as of January 1 of the election year, the election period would overlap with a federal election period, the provincial election is to be postponed until the third Tuesday of the following April.[4] Under the federal fixed-term act, the next federal election is tentatively scheduled for October 19, 2015, overlapping election periods by approximately three weeks. Thus, if nothing occurs to change either date by January 1, 2015, the Manitoba election will then be scheduled for April 19, 2016. The Lieutenant Governor retains the power to dissolve the Legislative Assembly early.[5]

Party standings

Summary of the current standings of the Legislative Assembly of Manitoba
Party Leader Seats
2011 Current
New Democratic Greg Selinger 37 35
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 19 19
Liberal Rana Bokhari 1 1
     Independent 0 1
  Vacant 1
Total 57 57

Incumbents not contesting their seats

Retiring incumbents

New Democrats
Progressive Conservatives

Opinion polls

Polling Firm Last Date of Polling Link NDP PC Liberal Green Other
Mainstreet Technologies November 3, 2014 HTML 27 53 20
Probe Research Inc October 1, 2014 HTML 30 42 20 8
Probe Research Inc June 19, 2014 HTML 32 45 16 7
Probe Research Inc March 28, 2014 HTML 28 46 23 6
Insightrix Research February 7, 2014 HTML 24 49 18 9
Probe Research Inc December 27, 2013 PDF 26 48 20 6
Probe Research Inc September 28, 2013 HTML 29 43 20 8
Probe Research Inc June 26, 2013 PDF 28 46 17 10
Probe Research Inc April 14, 2013 PDF 35 42 15 8
Probe Research Inc December 14, 2012 PDF 39 43 11 7
Probe Research Inc October 14, 2012 PDF 45 38 11 6
Probe Research Inc June 29, 2012 PDF 44 40 13 3
Probe Research Inc April 4, 2012 PDF 40 45 10 5
2011 election October 4, 2011 46.2 43.7 7.5 2.5 0.1

By-elections since 2011

Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Arthur-Virden
Party Candidate Votes % ∆% Expenditures
     Progressive Conservative Doyle Piwniuk 3,137 68.20 +2.23
Liberal Floyd Buhler 738 16.04 +12.23
     New Democrat Bob Senff 480 10.43 -19.78
Green Kate Storey 245 5.33
Total valid votes 4,600 100.00
Rejected and declined votes 10
Turnout 4,610 33.55
Electors on the lists 13,739
Progressive Conservative hold Swing -5.00
Manitoba provincial by-election, January 28, 2014: Morris
Party Candidate Votes % ∆% Expenditures
     Progressive Conservative Shannon Martin 2,642 69.99 -4.01
     New Democrat Dean Harder 488 12.93 -6.44
Liberal Jeremy Barber 422 11.18 +4.55
     Independent Ray Shaw 138 3.66 -
Green Alain Landry 85 2.25 -
Total valid votes 3,775
Rejected and declined votes 17
Turnout 3,792 27.51
Electors on the lists 13,782
Progressive Conservative hold Swing +1.21
Manitoba provincial by-election, September 4, 2012
Resignation of Hugh McFadyen: Fort Whyte
Party Candidate Votes % ∆%
Progressive Conservative Brian Pallister 3,626 55.14 -6.99
Liberal Bob Axworthy 2,069 31.47 +23.59
New Democratic Bonny Schmidt 739 11.24 -18.25
Green Donnie H.J Benham 113 1.73 +1.73
Independent Darrell Ackman 19 0.03 +0.03
Spoiled/rejected votes 10 * *
turnout 41.64 * *
Total valid votes 6,576 100.00 [7]

References

  1. ^ Voting in a Manitoba Provincial Election. Retrieved June 24, 2012.
  2. ^ "Brian Pallister takes over Tory leadership in Manitoba". CBC News. July 30, 2012. 
  3. ^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(2).
  4. ^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(3).
  5. ^ Elections Act, sec. 49.1(1).
  6. ^ a b "MLA Leanne Rowat will not seek reelection".  
  7. ^ http://electionsmanitoba.ca/2012Fortwhyte/results/division.asp

External links

  • Elections Manitoba
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